Modulation of the Indian Ocean Dipole on Regional Atmospheric Circulation Variability over the Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC) across Various ENSO Phases (1991–2020)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63581/JoCPES.v6i1.03Keywords:
imc, enso, dipole mode, dynamicsAbstract
This study investigates the modulation mechanisms of the Dipole Mode on the impact of ENSO toward the atmospheric dynamics of the Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC). Utilizing ERA5 reanalysis and Multi-Source Weather (MSWX) data for the 1991–2020 period, a conditional composite method was applied to 12 climate interaction scenarios. The results indicate that in-phase interactions exhibit constructive interference. The combination of Strong El Niño and Positive DMI triggers massive divergence, leading to "double drought" conditions, whereas Strong La Niña and Negative DMI result in extreme precipitation. A crucial finding confirms the Dipole Mode as a vital modulator. Negative DMI is shown to act as a buffer that mitigates El Niño-induced drought in western Indonesia, while Positive DMI dominantly suppresses La Niña’s wet signals. Understanding these mechanisms is essential for the accuracy of seasonal weather predictions and the mitigation of hydrometeorological disasters.
References
N. Madani, E. Hermawan, and A. Faqih, “Pengembangan Model Prediksi Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Berbasis Hasil Analisis Data Wind Profiler Radar (WPR),” J. Meteorol. dan Geofis., vol. 13, no. 1, 2012.
S. Amri, F. R. Fajary, and T. W. Hadi, “Analysis of Synoptic Disturbance in Maritime Continent Using Spherical Harmonics Transformation Method,” Agromet, vol. 34, no. 2, pages 89–99, 2020.
D. Argüeso, R. Romero, and V. Homar, “Precipitation features of the Maritime Continent in parameterized and explicit convection models,” J. Clim., vol. 33, no. 6, pages 2449–2466, 2020.
R. M. Putra, S. Alfiandy, and B. E. A. Haq, “Identifikasi Pengaruh El Nino Southern Oscillation (Enso), Indian Ocean Dipole (Iod), And Madden Julian Oscillation (Mjo) Terhadap Intensitas Curah Hujan Bulanan Di Indonesia Berbasis Machine Learning,” Bul. Ngurah Rai, vol. 6, pages 1–8, 2020.
J. Slingo, “MONSOONS| Overview,” 2003.
Z. Li, W. Yu, K. Li, B. Liu, and G. Wang, “Modulation of interannual variability of tropical cyclone activity over Southeast Indian Ocean by negative IOD phase,” Dyn. Atmos. Ocean., vol. 72, pages 62–69, 2015.
M.-S. Ahn, D. Kim, Y.-G. Ham, and S. Park, “Role of Maritime Continent land convection on the mean state and MJO propagation,” J. Clim., vol. 33, no. 5, pages 1659–1675, 2020.
S. C. Peatman, J. Schwendike, C. E. Birch, J. H. Marsham, A. J. Matthews, and G.-Y. Yang, “A local-to-large scale view of Maritime Continent rainfall: Control by ENSO, MJO, and equatorial waves,” J. Clim., vol. 34, no. 22, pages 8933–8953, 2021.
S. Amri and G. Giarno, “Analisis Dinamika Atmosfer Pada Kejadian Banjir, Tanah Longsor, dan Angin Kencang Di Semarang dan Demak Tanggal 13 Maret 2024,” J. Ilm. Biosaintropis, vol. 10, no. 1, pages 77–89, 2024.
M. A. Adzan, R. S. Amanu, P. Kuswanaji, S. Amri, and O. R. A. Saputro, “Analisis Dinamika Atmosfer di Benua Maritim Indonesia saat Fase Aktif CENS dan MJO Selama 30 Tahun (1994-2023),” EL-JUGHRAFIYAH, vol. 5, no. 1, pages 1–12, 2025.
N. H. Saji, B. N. Goswami, P. N. Vinayachandran, and T. Yamagata, “A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean,” Nature, vol. 401, no. 6751, pages 360–363, 1999.
B. Munir, “Faktor Atmosfer dalam Visibilitas Hilal Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG),” Lunggi J., vol. 2, no. 4, pages 684–713, 2024.
A. J. Lumbantoruan and S. Amri, “Analisis Pengaruh Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) dan Fenomena Cuaca Global terhadap Banjir di Kabupaten Wonogiri Tanggal 12 Februari 2023,” J. Geosains dan Remote Sens., vol. 6, no. 2, pages 91–98, 2025.
I. J. A. Saragih, P. A. Sigihartato, M. P. Rosyady, and A. Kristianto, “Pemanfaatan Data Penginderaan Jauh untuk Mengamati Perkembangan Siklon Tropis Cempaka dan Dahlia Serta Pengaruhnya Terhadap Distribusi Curah Hujan di Benua Maritim Indonesia,” Sinas Inderaja 2018, July, 2018.
H. E. Beck et al., “MSWX: Global 3-hourly 0.1 bias-corrected meteorological data including near-real-time updates and forecast ensembles,” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., vol. 103, no. 3, pages E710–E732, 2022.
NOAA, “El Niño/Southern Oscillation,” 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/enso/sst.
Bureau of Meteorology, “Climate monitoring graphs,” 2026. [Online]. Available: https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml.
Downloads
Published
Data Availability Statement
The data that support the findings of this study are available from public sources, including ECMWF (ERA5), NOAA (Niño 3.4 index), and GloH2O (MSWX).
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Journal of Computation Physics and Earth Science (JoCPES)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Copyright and License
Copyright © The Author(s). Authors retain copyright and full publishing rights to their work. Publication in the Journal of Computation Physics and Earth Science (JoCPES) does not transfer copyright to the journal or publisher. Authors grant JoCPES a non-exclusive right of first publication.
All articles published by JoCPES are licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Under this license, users are permitted to share, copy, redistribute, adapt, remix, transform, and build upon the published material for any purpose, including commercial use, provided that appropriate credit is given to the original author(s) and source, a link to the license is provided, and any changes made are indicated.
If the material is remixed, transformed, or built upon, the resulting work must be distributed under the same CC BY-SA 4.0 license. No additional legal terms or technological measures may be applied that restrict others from exercising the rights permitted by the license.
For complete license terms, please refer to the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License:
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/
