Estimation of Jayapura 2023 Aftershock Decay Time Using Python-Based Secant Algorithm
Main Article Content
Abstract
Accurately determining the termination time of aftershocks is crucial for disaster mitigation and establishing safe periods for community recovery. This study aimed to estimate the decay time of the January 2023 Jayapura aftershock sequence (M 5.4) using a numerical computational approach. The Mogi II decay model was selected due to its high compatibility with local seismicity. To resolve its complex non-linear exponential equations without analytical derivatives, the Secant Method was implemented using Python. The algorithm was initialized with starting guess values of x0=0 and x1=1, and an error tolerance of 0.0001. To validate algorithmic robustness and efficiency, a sensitivity test was conducted, and the method was benchmarked against the Bisection method. Results demonstrated that the Secant algorithm achieved superior computational efficiency, converging in exactly 10 iterations (~0.000115 seconds) compared to Bisection's 18 iterations, while remaining highly stable under arbitrary extreme initial guesses. The numerical solution predicted the decay termination at day 12.765, subsequently rounded to 13 days following the mainshock. This finding showed exact agreement with manual observational data, successfully extrapolating the decay trajectory beyond the 10-day BMKG recording window. The study concluded that the Python-based Secant algorithm is effective, rapid, robust, and precise in solving the Mogi II equation, demonstrating significant potential as an automated analytical tool to enhance disaster mitigation decision-making.
Downloads
References
[1] D. R. Apalem and R. Serang, “PELATIHAN MITIGASI BENCANA GEMPABUMI BAGI SISWA-SISWI SD NEGERI 2 TIAKUR, KABUPATEN MALUKU BARAT DAYA,” J. Pengabdi. Masy., vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 19–23, 2024.
[2] P. Supendi et al., “Journal of Asian Earth Sciences A conjugate fault revealed by the destructive Mw 5 . 6 ( November 21 , 2022 ) Cianjur earthquake , West Java , Indonesia,” J. Asian Earth Sci. J., vol. 257, p. 105830, 2023.
[3] Y. Prananda, T. Zera, and D. Sunarya, “Parameter Seismotektonik Wilayah Jawa Barat dan Banten Berdasarkan A-Value dan B-Value Periode 1971-2021,” Bul. Meteorol. Klimatologi, dan Geofis., vol. 2, no. 3, pp. 24–34, 2022.
[4] N. R. Permana and Rendinis, “Prediksi Waktu Berakhirnya Gempa Bumi Susulan Dengan Empat Metode Untuk Kejadian Di Lebak ,Banten, Pada 07-17 Juli 2018,” J. Mater. Sci. Geophys. Instrum. Theor. Phys., vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 68–72, 2019.
[5] V. N. Islamiati, S. Supardiono, Y. H. Perdana, and A. R. Setyahagi, “Analisis Peluruhan Gempa Bumi Susulan Di Ambon Tahun 2019 Dengan Pendekatan Statistik Menggunakan Software Peluruhan V2.0,” J. Inov. Fis. Indones., vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 163–172, 2020, doi: 10.26740/ifi.v9n2.p163-172.
[6] N. N. Faiza, A. Mukti Wibowo, and R. Fatimah, “ANALISIS METODE WAKTU PELURUHAN GEMPA BUMI SUSULAN BERDASARKAN METODE OMORI, MOGI DAN UTSU (STUDI KASUS GEMPA BUMI PASAMAN BARAT 25 FEBRUARI 2022),” JIIF (Jurnal Ilmu dan Inov. Fis., vol. 08, no. 02, pp. 65–72, 2024, [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.24198/jiif.v8i2
[7] H. Syarifuddin and P. Arianto, “Analisis Perkiraan Waktu Berakhirnya Gempabumi Susulan Pada Gempabumi M 5.4 Jayapura 2 Januari 2023,” Bul. Meterologi, Klimatologi dan Geofis., vol. 4, no. 5, pp. 46–53, 2023, [Online]. Available: https://repogempa.bmkg.go.id/eventca
[8] L. S. Utami, “Perbandingan Analisis Numerik Menggunakan Metode Secantdan Metode Iterasi Satu Titik Untuk Menentukan Koefisien Gesek Udara Pada Kubus Dan Silindris,” Paedagoria | FKIP UMMat, vol. 5, no. 2, p. 43, 2018, doi: 10.31764/paedagoria.v5i2.89.
[9] Yahya and A. M. Nur, “Pengaruh Aplikasi C# dalam Proses Perhitungan Numerik Terhadap Solusi Persamaan Non Linier,” J. Inform. dan Teknol., vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 79–87, 2018.
[10] M. Saefurohmah, D. B. Susanti, and M. Effendi, “Analisis Perbandingan Waktu Peluruhan Gempa Bumi Menggunakan Metode Omori dan Mogi 1 dengan Software Peluruhan V2. 0,” J. Stasiun Geofis. Sleman, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 7–13, 2024.
[11] Q. S. Akmala, N. Ekaswati, Syaharuddin, M. Ibrahim, and V. Mandailina, “Metode Biseksi Menggunakan Gui Matlab: Sebuah Simulasi Dan Solusi Persamaan Non-Linier,” in FORDETAK: Seminar Nasional Pendidikan: Inovasi Pendidikan di Era Society 5.0, 2022, pp. 659–664. [Online]. Available: https://e-proceedings.iain-palangkaraya.ac.id/index.php/PSNIP/article/view/810
[12] P. Batarius, “Perbandingan Metode Newton-Raphson Modifikasi Dan Metode Secant Modifikasi Dalam Penentuan Akar Persamaan,” in Seminar Nasional Riset dan Teknologi Terapan, 2018, pp. 53–63.
[13] A. Triono, A. S. Budi, and R. Abdillah, “Implementasi Peretasan Sandi Vigenere Chipper Menggunakan Bahasa Pemograman Python,” J. JOCOTIS - J. Sci. Inform. Robot., vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 1–9, 2023, [Online]. Available: https://jurnal.ittc.web.id/index.php/jumri
[14] E. Sunandar and I. Indrianto, “Perbandingan Metode Newton-Raphson & Metode Secant Untuk Mencari Akar Persamaan Dalam Sistem Persamaan Non-Linier,” PetirJurnal Pengkaj. dan Penerapan Tek. Inform., vol. 13, no. 1, pp. 72–79, 2020, doi: 10.33322/petir.v13i1.893.
[15] K. Mogi, Study of elastic shocks caused by the fracture of heterogeneous materials and its relations to earthquake phenomena, vol. 40. 1962.
Article Sidebar
